11/5/22, 4:45 PM
Contributor: @smartalecc5, @RHNogueira
Season 1 of Axie Meta - Analysis
What happened to the price of meta Axies during season 1? How can we use this information to better predict future prices when new meta emerges next season?
Sign up at www.teamvictree.com
Meta In Axie Season 1 - Analysis & Report
This information contained below is incredibly valuable to:
Anyone interested or that interacts with the Axie (and other similar games) marketplace
Players that want to acquire a strong team but need guidance on when is best for them considering their budget &
Breeders in evaluating and managing their risk!
The inaugural season of Axie Origins is into the homestretch with a little over a week left. Throughout the season, we’ve seen new metas establish dominance, clever builds, and combinations rise to the top of the leaderboards.
In this research piece, I hope to answer the following questions:
What happens to the price of meta Axies during the season?
How can we use this information to better predict future prices when new meta emerges next season?
Without question, the top-heavy prize leaderboard is the primary motivator for the competitive E-sports players. At the start of the season, the 1st place prize was valued at $90,000!
In its current state, free starter Axies will not be enough to climb to the top of the leaderboard. To do so, you will need to breed or purchase “Meta” Axies. They typically have synergistic parts/cards that work well together. Once someone “cracks the code” and reaches the top of the leaderboard, the race is on to breed and copy the best performing teams. This creates a rush on both demand and supply. Let’s take a look at Season 1 data so far.
What happened to the price of meta Axies during the season?
Using our exclusive tools that are only available at teamvictree.com, we are able to intelligently query the sales of all Axies during the season to find trends and insights. As the most dominant team currently present at the top of the leaderboards, let's dive into the financial details of the, loved by some and hated by many, Rage Comp.
Before we show the data used in our following analysis, here is a legend you can use to interpret the following charts:
Front Line Rage Axie sorted by Highest Sales Count:
The most purchased Axie with our frontline combinations are:
Innocent Lamb/Little Peas/Dual Blade/Goda/Cottontail/Ronin. Prices started around $200 in the beginning of October and experienced a decrease in price to about $30 at the end of the month.
Front Line Rage Axie Sorted by Highest Average Selling Price:
The highest average selling price Axie with our frontline combinations are:
Innocent Lamb/Little Peas/Dual Blade/Goda/Cottontail/Hero. Prices started around $400 in the beginning of October and experienced a decrease in price to about $40 at the end of the month.
Midline Axie Sorted by Most Sales:
The most sold midline rage beast was Belieber/Little Peas/Little Branch/Confident/Shiba/Ronin. Prices started around $250 in the beginning of October, there was a crazy virgin 1.5 ETH (there was an average of $650 price on that date) sale on Oct 6, and then the build experienced a decrease in price to about $40 at the end of the month.
Midline Sorted by Highest Average Selling Price:
The highest average selling price Axie with our midline combinations are:
Innocent Lamb/Little Peas/Eggshell/Confident/Cottontail/Ronin. Prices started around $350 in the beginning of October and experienced a decrease in price to about $50 at the end of the month.
The meta backline beast Axie of Belieber/Little Peas/Little Branch/Axie Kiss/Tiny Dino/Ronin started selling for around $450 and is now around $73. The cheapest option is the Confident mouth, with the current price at $36. With a nutcracker mouth, the price decreased from $200 to $35 over the past month.
What can we deduce from the above information?
As demand increases for meta Axies and breeding becomes profitable for certain builds, breeders will fill the void in the market and increase supply, thus driving down price.
More affordable Axies but nearly almost as strong, are more readily available with a lower price. Targeting strong, yet readily available on the marketplace makes it more affordable to compete near the top of the leaderboard.
We can reasonably predict the price of where Meta Axies will be at a point in time! The only thing we need is to know the starting price of the “meta” Axie and we can use regression analysis to predict where the price will be at a given point in time.
What if the price of the meta Axie on Day 1 isn’t one of the three amounts listed above?
Don’t worry, here’s an easy table to reference with approximate reference points.
Because breeding costs are fixed, a breeder will rationally choose to breed the highest priced selling Axies to maximize their profit margin. This increase in supply and rush to breed the highest priced Axies causes the higher priced Axies to depreciate more quickly.
In future research deep-dives found exclusively on TeamVicTree.com, we’ll answer the following questions!
-How do the prices of non-meta Axies, Runes, and Charms adjust over the course of the season?
-Is there a best time to purchase Axies to make a push up the leaderboard in order to reach ROI more consistently?
-What should a player, breeder or collector do as the season gets closer to its end?
Upon the start of Season 2, we’re going to put our math and hypothesis to the test to confirm that we can extrapolate future price movement of in-demand Axies!
P.S. This article is not financial advice. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned. Before acting on information on this website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.